An In Depth Look At How The Best TV Shows Fare From Season 1 to Season 2
Ever since I finished the book Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows in the summer of 2007 a question has constantly danced in my brain:
What now?
See, I knew from the start that Harry Potter was special, and perhaps I would never again get to experience the theorizing and fandom love like that again.
Now, I have loved and obsessed over many series since then. I am a super-nerd, let’s not pretend. But I could never find something so intricate, so passionate, and so new, that it could compare to HP (And, to a degree, LOTR, haven’t forgotten about you Peter Jackson!)
That is until Stranger Things arrived on Netflix…
I know I’m not the first to express my love for this brilliant show blessed to us by the Duffer Brothers. I might share a love letter (and it will be a longgg one) some other time.
But this particular article is about more than just Stranger Things. This is about my child-before-Christmas level anticipation for the upcoming season and the trepidation that coincides with it. I believe in the Duffer Brothers and the magic of the characters and the show they have created. I think, like HP, LOTR, Star Wars, Game of Thrones, and other classics before it, that these characters are too good, too authentic, to fail.
But what if it does? What if Season 2 isn’t that good? These thoughts continue to creep in on me. (Blasphemous Andrew, I hear my readers yell at this point, get that negative energy out of the universe!)
It’s too late, I’ve written it down already, and it would take too many backspaces to undo. So now that it’s here I wanted to take a deeper look at what history tells us about the flop to fly potential of this show going forward. Here is where I truly nerd out on you.
What I intend to do is take a look at the critically acclaimed shows that hold the same rarefied air as Stranger Things, and what does their Season 2 track record seem to suggest. To do this, I will be using IMDB as my research database. As a fan, looking at this for the fans, from the perspective of the fans, the IMDB rating system seems the best way to accomplish this analysis.
Now, before sharing my statistics and corresponding takes on them, I feel obligated to present some disclaimers that may strike you as you read on.
First, I understand the dilemma with looking at Top Shows and comparing the changes between their first and second seasons. A SIGNIFICANT drop in quality between season one and season two would probably exclude a particular show from this best-of-tv list, so their extended quality can probably be presumed. I would tend to agree, but since I don’t have the time or knowledge to know the shows with stellar season ones that experienced a massive drop in quality for season two, this is what we have to work with.
Second, and perhaps more important, is finding shows that are similar to Stranger Things in a variety of aspects. Being that Stranger Things is an original show (albeit purposefully reminiscent of a slew of 80’s culturally iconic movies and books) this can be a difficult task.
So here we go:
The very first thing I did for my research was take a look at the top 30 TV shows on IMDB according to their rating system. Immediately I went through them to eliminate shows that didn’t fit our comparison needs. This meant any documentary shows got cut first.
(Sidenote: 9 of the 30 highest ranked television shows are nature documentaries. Nearly 1/3 was shocking to me)
Now I had 21 shows to look at. From here I removed any talk shows (bye John Oliver), comedies (adios Rick and Morty), and one off miniseries (Later Band of Brothers). I now I had 14 shows left. Three of these didn’t have a season two, either because of their newness (Westworld and Full Metal Jacket), or because Firefly. These were also eliminated since comparison couldn’t be there. Now we have 11. Finally, I eliminated two (Batman the Animated Series and One Punch Man) of my own volition. I didn’t think they fit what we are looking for.
Our 9 candidates were as follows:
- Game of Thrones
- Breaking Bad
- The Wire
- The Sopranos
- Sherlock
- Avatar: The Last Airbender
- The Twilight Zone
- True Detective
- Fargo
- I wanted to make the list 10 shows even so I decided to get another Netflix original show involved. I believed House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, The OA, 13 Reasons Why, Luke Cage, Daredevil, Master of None, Bloodline, and Jessica Jones were all viable options. Four didn’t have a second season, and one was a comedy. These were out. House of Cards, OITNB, Daredevil, and Bloodline. OITNB goes because it is not based on original content but based loosely off a book of the same name. Judgement call from here and I chose to add Daredevil to the mix (It’s based off the comics, I know, but it’s the one I’ve seen entirely so sue me, it’s making the list)
Next, using the individual grades of each episode in these series, I found an average episode grade for their first and second seasons.
1. Game of Thrones: Season 1- 9.08 Season 2- 8.96
2. Breaking Bad: Season 1- 8.728 Season 2- 8.80
3. The Wire: Season 1- 8.438 Season 2- 8.366
4. The Sopranos Season 1- 8.777 Season 2- 8.731
5. Sherlock Season 1- 8.8 Season 2- 9.267
6. Avatar (Airbender) Season 1- 8.39 Season 2- 8.69
7. Twilight Zone Season 1- 7.803 Season 2- 7.728
8. True Detective Season 1- 9.3 Season 2- 8.25
9. Fargo Season 1- 9.07 Season 2- 9.16
10. Daredevil Season 1- 8.915 Season 2- 9.077
And then, of course, Stranger Things for reference:
Season 1- 8.89
The change in these shows between Season 1 to Season 2 broke down like this:
- Game of Thrones: -0.12
- Breaking Bad: +0.072
- The Wire: -0.072
- The Sopranos: -0.046
- Sherlock: +0.467
- Avatar: +0.3
- Twilight Zone: -0.075
- True Detective: -1.05
- Fargo: +0.09
- Daredevil: +0.162
Looking over this data, THREE things stood out to me that I feel are important to share:
- CONSISTENCY
The staying power of a great show looks to be its overall consistency (Shocker!). No trend arose on whether the best shows tend to rise or fall from season one to season two, split evenly five to five. But what was generally clear was how little change seemed to occur. The mean discrepancy for all the shows was 0.2454. This skews even closer if True Detective, the one true (puns) outlier is removed. That puts the discrepancy at 0.1404. I feel fine excluding True Detective from this analysis anyways because it is one of two shows on this list which had a complete switch of casts from season one to season two. I mentioned earlier that characters are what create timeless entertainment and if you are introducing new characters, there is a much greater potential for a dip (or spike) in quality. In this case it went down in True Detective. Overall, the best of the best shows hardly skip a beat when going from season one to season two.
- SHORT SEASONS
Upon reflection, it seemed clear that shorter seasons seemed to be a recipe for extended excellence in television. Most shows on the list ranged from 7 to 15 episodes per season, the exceptions being Sherlock (3), Avatar (20), and Twilight Zone (29-36). HBO, BBC, and Netflix contributing six of these shows certainly plays a role in this as well. The expense and time dedicated to these shows is higher than most networks and therefore quality over quantity tends to be these networks motto. This bodes well for Stranger Things, which is currently slated for 9 episodes.
- HOW DAMN HARD IT IS TO COMPARE STRANGER THINGS TO OTHER SHOWS
It is a testament to the brilliance of Stranger Things that the show simply doesn’t really compare to anything else on this list. In terms of themes, it probably is closest to The Twilight Zone, but Zone had stand-alone episodes and therefore does not allow you to fall in love with the characters the way Stranger Things has. The ten chosen shows cover a wide spectrum, but a lot do seem to fall into a law and order context (upholding or breaking the law, and oftentimes a mix of both), or more fantasy. Stranger Things kind of toes the line of both of these. It is just so hard to categorize, which is probably a big part of its appeal.
VERDICT
In the end, with all the numbers crunched, and the data combed through several times from several different angles, I can safely tell you I have no idea whether Stranger Things will sink or swim in season two. If it is to be among the best of TV, which I have the highest faith that it will, then a significant dip in quality would seem unlikely. But then again, Stranger Things have happened.
Andrew M. Jaromin 